During World War II, Allied engineers studied returning bomber planes to determine how to improve their protection. Their initial calculations assumed that reinforcing the areas with the most bullet holes would be most effective. However, statistician Abraham Wald offered a counterintuitive solution: reinforce the areas with no bullet holes. Wald's insight was based on the understanding that the bullet holes on these planes represented areas that did not result in fatal damage. The missing data—the planes that did not return—likely had bullet holes in critical areas that led to their destruction. His insight, which combined human intuition with an understanding of the data generation process, resulted in a significant reduction in casualties. This story demonstrates the importance of human judgment, alongside mathematical models, in making informed decisions. This is the central theme of "Prediction Machines." Throughout the book, the authors—Ajay Agrawal, Avi...
Why does rape generate stronger reactions and awaken a nation's conscience more often than other heinous crimes? Is it perhaps because it inflicts immense pain on the victim and their family? One might argue that this is also true for murder. Is it the fact that offenders derive pleasure from the victim's suffering that contributes to this disparity? Does this justify the death penalty? Should the validity of criminal laws be determined by public morality rather than constitutional morality? First of all, what is justice? These were some of the questions that had occupied my thoughts recently. Michael J. Sandel delves into the philosophical debate surrounding justice, highlighting three key concepts: maximizing welfare, respecting freedom, and promoting virtue. He contrasts ancient views, which tie justice to virtue and the best way of life, with modern perspectives that emphasize individual freedom and neutrality regarding moral values. Ultimately, Sandel suggests ...